Agreed, so much of the trad media bias regarding the tariffs hasn’t translated to much headline risk—although some may argue there are pockets of volatility that have cropped up
I think a healthy correction is well needed, anyhow 😎
As someone who wants to buy a home in the next few years, I’m glad to hear rates are following.
We’ll have to see, I have heard two opposing opinions from very knowledgeable people this year about interest rates:
- I’ve heard several people say that Tariffs and trade breakdowns are going to drive rates higher.
- I’ve also heard a few different voices say that since other central banks are already cutting aggressively, we are going to see a race to the bottom.
I think theres evidence to support both, so we’ll have to see what happens in the next few months.
An insightful read, well written!
I’m always keeping an eye on treasury auctions in particular. Definitely gives us an idea of where mortgage rates will drift to.
Cheers!
I didn’t know that mortgage rates followed bonds so closely. What are you seeing?
There’s usually a lag, about 2-3 weeks generally. It’s all about the 10-year treasury. Easy to track auction results on treasury dot gov
Mortgage rates are at their lowest all year 🙌
Now can we get 3% again? Probably not!
I’ll have to subscribe to read it!
To be honest, IMO I don’t think the tariff driven stagflation narrative doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.
If tariffs were the sole reason for market uncertainty, markets should be selling off consistently still and we keep reaching temporary-ish floors.
I could be wrong, but I think there are more things going on in the markets.
Agreed, so much of the trad media bias regarding the tariffs hasn’t translated to much headline risk—although some may argue there are pockets of volatility that have cropped up
I think a healthy correction is well needed, anyhow 😎
Agreed, we need a correction to clear out the dead equity and get things moving again
As someone who wants to buy a home in the next few years, I’m glad to hear rates are following.
We’ll have to see, I have heard two opposing opinions from very knowledgeable people this year about interest rates:
- I’ve heard several people say that Tariffs and trade breakdowns are going to drive rates higher.
- I’ve also heard a few different voices say that since other central banks are already cutting aggressively, we are going to see a race to the bottom.
I think theres evidence to support both, so we’ll have to see what happens in the next few months.
I think you just gave me inspiration for a future post 😎
I think there’s a lot of meat on that bone to analyze, stay tuned!