Is China Abandoning Xi Jinping?
Xi Jinping's Recent Disappearance Could Spell Danger for His Rule
Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, has reappeared, after going AWOL for two weeks, in one of the strangest political disappearing acts (in my opinion) of 2025. This isn’t uncommon for Xi Jinping. I watched a Peter Zeihan economic lecture about a year ago where Zeihan explained how Xi Jinping was always busy working because he had removed competent people from the CCP, which made him miss swathes of public events.
However, this time around, whispers from news outlets and a list of odd happenings suggest that Xi’s reign may be ending. In this article, I am going to answer three questions: What is happening in China’s political regime? What might be driving the political unrest? And, what does this mean for China and the globe?
My Quick Note To China
I am rolling the dice on this one, so before I get started on this article, let me make something clear.
I am not anti-Chinese, when I write these articles, I am trying to paint a picture of China’s economic and political future to get a better idea of what will happen to the global economy.
For almost a year now, I have been writing articles on China’s less-than-illustrious economic situation, and my research has led me to learning about the political woes inside the CCP. I’ll admit, when I first learned about China’s situation in September 2024 while standing in a line at Crumbl Cookies, I was ecstatic. For close to a year before that, I was seeing cracks in the Chinese economy that no one in my circle seemed to notice. However, close to twelve months on, I feel kind of sad.
Regardless of China’s political affiliation and their ultimate goals, the Chinese people are still human beings, and they deserve life, happiness, and prosperity to the same degree as everyone else. Deflation, economic meltdown, and political civil war all prevent that. Also, as one of the world's largest markets, trouble in China is trouble for most of the world.
I wanted to make that clear before we get started, since what we’re about to talk about (if correct) spells harm for China’s short run future.
China Done With Xi?
The People's News released an article that spells out well what might be happening in China. Xi Jinping disappeared for two weeks last month, and now that he has reappeared, political actions have not been kind to him:
The Guanzhong Revolutionary Memorial Hall, which, by precedent, should have been named after Xi’s father (according to Epoch Times), wasn’t.
An expanded Politburo meeting took place, including party elders and former party leaders, supposedly to investigate and hear accusations around Xi’s rule.
The Tuanpai (Chinese Youth League) has been revived.
The CIA posted a Video on X urging CCP leaders to defect.
Most worrying of all, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s visit to Xi Jinping a few days ago was described as “a Friendly Family Meeting” by the People’s News, where “negotiations are optional.”
“Negotiations are optional. The visit itself is important. No other world leader would conduct a visit this way. This is a friendly family dinner. That is the core of the visit.” - First Deputy Prime Minister Nikolai Snopkov
Other voices have hinted that Lukashenko’s visit had a darker purpose: Lukashenko’s visit was used by Putin as a test to see if Xi Jinping was still in control.
What is going on?
It’s hard to say exactly, since all we have are rumors and anecdotes, but when we add the recent PLA military purges, the picture looks like the CCP is done with Xi Jinping and his confidants.
Why Is China Done With Xi?
Again, we have to be careful; without more verified information, we can’t come to a straight conclusion. However, what we know to this point suggests that the elders of the CCP see Xi Jinping as a liability to party control. There are several reasons why this might be the case:
First, China’s economy is crumbling. We’ve discussed this at length here in the newsletter, but China’s debt problem, artificially depressed prices, and dependence on global exports have led to an unsustainable economic future.
Second, Xi Jinping is deviating from “a fundamental democratic base”. Recent notes from official party news channels and critiques from domestic professors have focused on the same message: Xi Jinping’s drive to consolidate power goes against the goals of the CCP. The fact that those professors went unpunished (according to NTD) is also telling.
Finally, Xi’s health is concerning. Jennifer Zhang of Inconvenient Truths showed in a recent broadcast that Xi Jinping had scars on his head, all but confirming suspicions that Xi Jinping had suffered a stroke.
If those three points are true, then Xi Jinping represents a problem for the CCP, and the idea of “Managed Exit” would be an appealing and likely strategy. This would likely be a face-saving measure, according to Cai Shenkun, by officially releasing Xi Jinping and his colleagues at a future national conference into forced retirement. What happens after that is anybody’s guess.
What Does That Mean for the World?
Following in the path of past leaders in China, Xi Jinping has not named a successor, so we have no official idea of who will take control following Xi’s removal (if it happens at all). Lack of experience seems to be the main issue here, with the exception of one name: Wang Yang.
Wang Yang is part of the “liberal” faction in the CCP. He is a champion of Political openness and free markets, a stark contrast to the consolidation we’ve seen under Xi Jinping. When party elders approached him about returning to a party role, Yang had three conditions that had to be met:
Control over the military: Yang said he would not take a serious office without control over the military. This makes sense; the last two leaders who lacked military control (according to Lei's Real Talk) were ousted. In that case, this is less about consolidation and more about political protection.
Down with “Wolf Warrior” Diplomacy: Yang believes that returning to “peaceful development” is the future of China, so the foreign ministry in China needs to be purged of its anti-West diplomats and staffed with West-friendly, professional diplomats.
End the Purges: In an unprecedented move, Yang wants the political purges and infighting to end. The CCP has a long history of purging and removing political rivals, which Yang believes is destroying the party.
If Yang’s demands are met and he takes power, this is massive news for The Globe, as it implies a more cooperative and more stable China that wants to work with the West. As I close today, I’ve decided I am going to write another article describing the potential impact of these three demands next week, since this article is already long, so stay tuned for that one.
It’s hard to be sure of China’s future yet, however, if these reports are true, we will be staring down the barrel of a Xi-less China very soon.
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